Climate change is a massive and unprecedented threat to human flourishing. It not only threatens the great strides the world has already made in reducing extreme poverty, it calls into question the very possibility of continued economic development and social progress, driven up to now by fossil fuel- powered industrialization. The question of whether it is possible to make real human progress – to lift millions of people out of poverty and create equitable well-developed societies – without increasing carbon emissions beyond sustainable levels?
Our research on the relationship between consumption- based CO2 emissions and social progress intends to help the world figure out what is possible to answer this question. We also put together an interactive dashboard that allows you to explore our key areas of research and findings on the relationship between social progress (measured by SPI) and global environmental sustainability (measured by consumption-based CO2 emissions).
Exploring the relationship between social progress and consumption-based CO2 emissions per capita is the key step for analyzing SPI in terms of environmental sustainability. Although the relationship is positive overall (higher social progress is associated with higher CO2 emissions), we find that there are significant disparities across countries in terms of the “content” of CO2 in their SPI which we express as the ratio of CO2 emissions per capita over the SPI score – this is what we call the carbon intensity of social progress.
Countries considered as the best performing are those with the lowest carbon intensity – these countries achieve their level of SPI with the lowest damage to environmental sustainability and therefore have the most sustainable SPI. Based on this, for each SPI tier, we define a reference country with the lowest carbon intensity and its counterpart with the highest SPI-CO2 intensity. From SPI tier 1 (highest social progress) to SPI tier 6 (lowest social progress), countries with the lowest carbon intensities are Sweden, Costa Rica, Armenia, Ghana, Rwanda and Madagascar. In contrast, countries with the highest SPI-CO2 intensity are Australia, the United States, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Libya and Angola.
To find an answer to this question, we created a hypothetical scenario (available in the interactive dashboard below) which provided a fundamental finding – if each country adopted the most sustainable performance from its respective SPI tier, the world as whole would become sustainable in terms of consumption-based per capita CO2 emissions! While our simulation is based on rather strong assumptions, it shows what could be possible even within current realities.
Our analysis also suggests that more inclusive countries, like Costa Rica and Ghana, seem to better balance the needs of people and the planet by being more efficient at turning their GDP into social progress. These countries showed that, by prioritizing the needs of their people, they had not just better social outcomes, but also better environmental ones. By following this model leaders created policies and made investment decisions that centred around what was best for people and for the planet. They chose the real things that matter to real people, and in doing so they made sure the planet was protected for future generations to come.
The dashboard includes visualizations of the above-mentioned analyses and findings and provides further details and evidence. Some visualisations also use GDP per capita and population size of countries. Please note that the latest year available for the CO2 emissions (2019) is shifted by three years and for GDP per capita and population size (2020) by two years to align with the Social Progress Index latest available year (2022).
What Comes Next
We continue using the Social Progress Index to analyse relationships between social progress and environmental sustainability. We are investigating:
In addition to the above, we have already developed the Just Transition Score and the Climate Perceptions Index.
We hope we can count on your support as we continue this research. To learn more about how you can support this work and for more information about our research and opportunities for collaboration, please Contact Us.
Climate change is a massive and unprecedented threat to human flourishing. It not only threatens the great strides the world has already made in reducing extreme poverty, it calls into question the very possibility of continued economic development and social progress, driven up to now by fossil fuel- powered industrialization. The question of whether it is possible to make real human progress – to lift millions of people out of poverty and create equitable well-developed societies – without increasing carbon emissions beyond sustainable levels?
Our research on the relationship between consumption- based CO2 emissions and social progress intends to help the world figure out what is possible to answer this question. We also put together an interactive dashboard that allows you to explore our key areas of research and findings on the relationship between social progress (measured by SPI) and global environmental sustainability (measured by consumption-based CO2 emissions).
Exploring the relationship between social progress and consumption-based CO2 emissions per capita is the key step for analyzing SPI in terms of environmental sustainability. Although the relationship is positive overall (higher social progress is associated with higher CO2 emissions), we find that there are significant disparities across countries in terms of the “content” of CO2 in their SPI which we express as the ratio of CO2 emissions per capita over the SPI score – this is what we call the carbon intensity of social progress.
Countries considered as the best performing are those with the lowest carbon intensity – these countries achieve their level of SPI with the lowest damage to environmental sustainability and therefore have the most sustainable SPI. Based on this, for each SPI tier, we define a reference country with the lowest carbon intensity and its counterpart with the highest SPI-CO2 intensity. From SPI tier 1 (highest social progress) to SPI tier 6 (lowest social progress), countries with the lowest carbon intensities are Sweden, Costa Rica, Armenia, Ghana, Rwanda and Madagascar. In contrast, countries with the highest SPI-CO2 intensity are Australia, the United States, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Libya and Angola.
To find an answer to this question, we created a hypothetical scenario (available in the interactive dashboard below) which provided a fundamental finding – if each country adopted the most sustainable performance from its respective SPI tier, the world as whole would become sustainable in terms of consumption-based per capita CO2 emissions! While our simulation is based on rather strong assumptions, it shows what could be possible even within current realities.
Our analysis also suggests that more inclusive countries, like Costa Rica and Ghana, seem to better balance the needs of people and the planet by being more efficient at turning their GDP into social progress. These countries showed that, by prioritizing the needs of their people, they had not just better social outcomes, but also better environmental ones. By following this model leaders created policies and made investment decisions that centred around what was best for people and for the planet. They chose the real things that matter to real people, and in doing so they made sure the planet was protected for future generations to come.
The dashboard includes visualizations of the above-mentioned analyses and findings and provides further details and evidence. Some visualisations also use GDP per capita and population size of countries. Please note that the latest year available for the CO2 emissions (2019) is shifted by three years and for GDP per capita and population size (2020) by two years to align with the Social Progress Index latest available year (2022).
What Comes Next
We continue using the Social Progress Index to analyse relationships between social progress and environmental sustainability. We are investigating:
In addition to the above, we have already developed the Just Transition Score and the Climate Perceptions Index.
We hope we can count on your support as we continue this research. To learn more about how you can support this work and for more information about our research and opportunities for collaboration, please Contact Us.
