An Agenda for Britain's New Prime Minister

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Britain enters a new political chapter with Andy Burnham taking office as Prime Minister, becoming the seventh leader to hold the post in a decade. Yet beyond the political changes at Downing Street, the key challenge facing the administration remains unchanged: breaking out of a 15-year period of stagnant social progress.

In this episode of Beyond GDP: The Social Progress Podcast, we outline a roadmap for recovery. Based on findings from the Global Social Progress Index (2011-2025) and the Time Series Social Progress Index (1190-2020), we highlight five key priorities designed to make a long-term impact.

Michael Green, CEO at Social Progress Imperative, writes the following article:

So the deed has been done. Keir Starmer, winner of a landslide general election just 2 years ago, has been defenestrated and Britain has a new prime minister (again- he’s the 7th in the last decade) - Mr Andy Burnham. What’s the difference? Mr Burnham has a bit more charm and charisma than the stolid Mr Starmer and the rest is, well, unknown. So, as is my patriotic duty, let me give Mr Burnham some advice based on data from the Social Progress Index.

I have good news and bad news for you, Mr Burnham. The bad news is that the UK is stuck in a rut. Social progress has been stagnant for the last 15 years due to post financial crisis austerity, Brexit and  Covid. You inherit a troubled kingdom. The good news is that change is possible. Back in 1990 the UK had the lowest social progress in the G7 but then enjoyed 20 years of sustained improvement under first John Major and then Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. Change is possible, although harder now given the fragile state of public finances.

There are, I think, three keys to success for you Mr Burnham if you are to leave a lasting social progress legacy:

First, keep your eyes on the prize. The team at Social Progress Imperative did a study of election results around the world and found that economic growth alone does not get you re-elected. Voters aren’t stupid. They judge you on their day to day lived experience not a GDP statistic. If they don’t see improvement in their daily lives, they will kick you out, even if the economic growth numbers look good. Your success metric should be getting the UK out of its social progress rut. Economic growth is one of the means, not the end itself.

Second, you have to look beyond the national numbers to differences across regions and communities. That has, of course, been said before. Boris Johnson made a lot of hoo-ha about what he called ‘levelling up’. Alas, he went about it the wrong way, as many before have done. Regional policy in the hands of egotistic politicians often ends up in luring flagship investments that make for a good announcement to the press but don’t deliver very much. 

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A bold regional agenda for Mr Burnham would have three elements:

1. Level up what matters. Regional policy all too often tries to equalise or level up incomes across a country. This is a fool’s errand. There will always be differences in economic activity across a country. Focus instead on equalising quality of life, social progress. That, as we see from successful Nordic countries, is an achievable policy target and one that voters will see in their everyday lives.
2. Create customised strategies for each region and community based on their real needs. Your pitch for power was based on the apparent success of your time as Mayor of Manchester. There you used your local knowledge to target sorting out public transportation and won plaudits. London’s mayor, Sadiq Khan, has similarly followed the evidence. He took bold measures to curb particulate air pollution and, as a result, pollution is down and Londoners are reaping health benefits from cleaner air. A local problem and a local solution. You have talked about greater devolution to local government. That could be a big idea, as long as local leaders follow the evidence on where the biggest problems are.
3. The higher education system is a powerful lever for regional development. We find this in the Social Progress Index data for many countries - universities have large spillover effects to their local communities, even beyond jobs and skills. Universities are a bit out of fashion at the moment. That is a mistake. Strong universities are good for the country and good for local communities. You should embrace this as part of your agenda.

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My final piece of advice to you, Mr Burnham, based on the UK’s Social Progress Index performance, is to go for the big fix, not the quick fix. Unaffordable housing, one of the UK’s big weaknesses, is a case in point. Government after government has promised to fix this problem by building a magic 300,000 homes a year. They have all failed. Yes, housebuilding is part of the solution but so too is planning reform and tax reform. You have made some interesting mutterings about these issues, Mr Burnham. Be bold and leave a lasting legacy.

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The other area needing a big fix is building a peaceful and harmonious society. One of Britain’s great triumphs was, after the bloody wars of religion of the 17th century, to recognise the importance of polite and patient deliberation in the public arena. That is disappearing, fuelled by meddling foreign powers, mischievous billionaires, inflammatory algorithms and demagogic opportunists. You need to be robust in tackling all these threats. Maybe even constitutional reform will be needed to create new resilient structures fit for the world of AI. The UK, probably working with the EU and other middle powers, needs to take this seriously as a matter of national security. 

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I don’t envy you, Mr Burnham, there is a lot to do and not a lot of resources to do it with. You’re also coming into power with a weight of expectations from your backers, who will cry foul if those expectations are not satisfied. But do not be cowed. There is serious work to be done. Good luck and, always, follow the data.

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